I think a better strategy for HP would be to start with Teradata and then go with MicroStrategy. I’ve always thought IBM/Cognos was a better match. As for the Business Objects/SAP rumor…that would not be a lot of fun, but certainly not out of the question. The Performance Guys wrote an interesting review here
My comments on this:
I enjoyed the Performance Guys comments you referenced.
IBM acquiring Cognos (COGN)
has been a recurring rumor for over a year. It makes sense for technology and
business reasons. On the sales side, Cognos is much more heavily dependent on
direct sales than Business Objects (BOBJ.)
With IBM’s sales force and partnership network there is potentially a nice pop
in Cognos sales almost immediately after being acquired — more so than with BOBJ.
On the systems integration side, IBM’s Services and partners provide a huge
influx of consulting power for BI and performance management solutions with an
increased emphasis on industry-oriented offerings. Again, another area where
Cognos can leapfrog BOBJ.
And technically, no offense to Cognos, but its ETL
product is the weak link in its offerings. Pairing it up with Ascential’s (IBM)
DataStage would be terrific (as would pairing it with another world-class
data integration tool?!)
HP (HPQ) acquiring Teradata? That’s interesting since HP’s
CEO ran Teradata, but HP has developed Neoview, which it is deploying internally
and selling to customers. That’s a big overlap. Although Oracle (ORCL)
might be fine with that type of overlap, HP may not be willing to consider it.
Teradata may be a great acquisition but it may be more valuable to another high
tech titan. In addition, NCR
is set to spin-off Teradata on September 30th so that
complicates things in the short-term but makes it easier to acquire later.
HP acquiring MicroStrategy (MSTR)…that’s
one I have been thinking about for a while. Great technology with a more
reasonably (depressed?) priced stock. P/E ratio of 15, PEG 1.07, P/S 2.68, (all "better" than its main competitors), and it is 47% off its 52 week high! And
with a market cap less than $1B. You don’t get the customers or company
resources (sales, services or engineering) as you would if you acquired one of
its bigger brethren but HP might not be interested in paying for those and
would rather get the technology.