When I read some of the predictions or trends for 2008 by
analysts, columnists and even a few vendors I am struck by both the hype and
blatant technology/product promotion! I feel there should be a counterweight to
the hype. But if I suggest it I am sure some (those promoting the hype) will
say that I just can’t see how their product is the answer to information
I do feel the technology and product trends being hyped are
valuable tools for some customers,
for some projects, for some business users and for some data.
However, I don’t see any of them “solving world hunger.” None
are THE solution to everyone’s information problems. In fact, I don’t feel any
of them are a solution unto themselves, but are just enabling technologies that,
coupled with data governance, meeting business requirements, following good
software engineering practices and utilizing solid project management (to name
a few non-product oriented ingredients) may help businesses leverage
information better than they do today.
For anyone who has experienced the hype cycle before, you
know there are initial successful projects by companies who are innovators
(maybe exaggerated?), followed by a large growth rate (this is off a small
customer base to begin with) and then the pundits extrapolating these high
growth rates out forever until the trend becomes pervasive.
Sometimes the growth rate happens, most times it does not.
But even when it happens it usually takes longer than anticipated. Remember, we
are dealing with the real world of limited IT budgets, installed applications
and business people who are trying to run the business (to make the profit that
then will support salaries and the IT budgets.) Even if the technology is
terrific it takes companies a while to catch on and then implement.
My 8 most overly
hyped trends for 2008:
I’ll be back — thanks for writing on this subject!
Great post. These predictions often get ahead of themselves as a result of industry hype. The culprits of the hype in my view are the software vendors and IT “research” firms who mind-numbingly quote statistics from their own flawed and biased research.
Not sure if you read the thorough thrashing that Aberdeen got by the Wall Street Journal a couple of weeks ago, but this is, in my view, is much of the problem as it relates to IT trends – the self-serving research that many of the ‘prominent’ organizations put out. I wrote about the Aberdeen article in my blog if you’re interested. It is at:
Great blog. I’ll be checking back frequently now.